Statistical bulletin: UK Labour Market, October 2014
Key Points for June to August 2014
Comparing the estimates for June to August 2014 with those for March to May 2014, employment continued to rise and unemployment continued to fall. These changes continue the general direction of movement since late 2011/early 2012.
There were 30.76 million people in work. This was 46,000 more than for March to May 2014, the smallest quarterly increase since March to May 2013. Comparing June to August 2014 with a year earlier, there were 736,000 more people in work.
The proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate), was 73.0%, slightly higher than for March to May %) and higher than for a year earlier (71.5%).
There were 1.97 million unemployed people, 154,000 fewer than for March to May 2014 and 538,000 fewer than a year earlier. This is the largest annual fall in unemployment on record. Records for annual changes in unemployment begin in 1972.
The unemployment rate continued to fall, reaching 6.0% for June to August 2014, the lowest since late 2008. The unemployment rate is the proportion of the economically active population (those in work plus those seeking and available to work) who were unemployed.
There were 9.03 million people aged from 16 to 64 who were out of work and not seeking or available to work (known as economically inactive). This was 113,000 more than for March to May 2014 but 46,000 fewer than for a year earlier.
The economic inactivity rate was 22.2%, higher than for March to May %) but lower than for a year earlier (22.4%).
Pay including bonuses for employees in Great Britain was 0.7% higher than a year earlier. Pay excluding bonuses for employees in Great Britain was 0.9% higher than a year earlier.
(i) Summary of latest Labour Market Statistics
Table A shows the latest estimates, for June to August 2014, for employment, unemployment and economic inactivity and shows how these estimates compare with the previous quarter (March to May 2014) and the previous year (June to August 2013). These estimates, along with other estimates derived from the Labour Force Survey, have been revised back to 2001. See Background Notes to this Statistical Bulletin for further details of these revisions.
Table A: Summary of latest estimates for June to August 2014, seasonally adjusted
Number (thousands)
Change on Mar-May 2014
Change on Jun-Aug 2013
Headline Rate (%)
Change on Mar-May 2014
Change on Jun-Aug 2013
Aged 16-64
Unemployed
Aged 16-64
Aged 16-64
Table source: Office for National Statistics
Table notes:
Calculation of headline employment rate: Number of employed people aged from 16 to 64 divided by the population aged from 16 to 64. Population is the sum of employed plus unemployed plus inactive.
Calculation of headline unemployment rate: Number of unemployed people aged 16 and over divided by the sum of employed people aged 16 and over plus unemployed people aged 16 and over.
Calculation of headline economic inactivity rate: Number of economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64 divided by the population aged from 16 to 64. Population is the sum of employed plus unemployed plus inactive.
Components may not sum exactly to totals due to rounding.
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Comparing June to August 2014 with March to May 2014, the number of:
people in employment increased by 46,000 (to 30.76 million),
unemployed people fell by 154,000 (to 1.97 million), and
people aged from 16 to 64 who were out of work but not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) increased by 113,000 (to 9.03 million).
Comparing June to August 2014 with June to August 2013, the number of:
people in employment increased by 736,000,
unemployed people fell by 538,000, and
people aged from 16 to 64 who were out of work but not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) fell by 46,000.
Chart A: Changes in the number of people in the labour market, seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
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(ii) Understanding and working with Labour Market Statistics
Where to find explanatory information
is available on the website as a short video.
, available on the website, is designed to help users interpret labour market statistics and highlight some common misunderstandings.
A more detailed , which expands on “Interpreting Labour Market Statistics” and includes a , is also available.
About labour market statuses
Everybody aged 16 or over is either ,
or . The employment estimates include all people in work including those working part-time. People not working are classed as unemployed if they have been looking for work within the last four weeks and are able to start work within the next two weeks. A common misconception is that the unemployment statistics are a count o this is not the case as they include unemployed people not claiming benefits.
Jobless people who have not been looking for work within the last four weeks or who are unable to start work within the next two weeks are classed as economically inactive. Examples of economically inactive people include people not looking for work because they are students, looking after the family or home, because of illness or disability or because they have retired.
Making comparisons with earlier data
The most robust estimates of short-term movements in the labour market are obtained by comparing the estimates for June to August 2014 with the estimates for March to May 2014, which were first published on 16 July 2014 and have been revised in this release. This provides a more robust estimate than comparing with the estimates for May to July 2014. This is because the June and July data are included within both estimates, so effectively observed differences are those between the individual months of May and August 2014. The Labour Force Survey, from which these estimates are derived, is sampled such that it is representative of the UK population over a three month period, not for single month periods.
Accuracy and reliability of survey estimates
Most of the figures in this Statistical Bulletin come from surveys of households or businesses. Surveys gather information from a sample rather than from the whole population. The sample is designed carefully to allow for this, and to be as accurate as possible given practical limitations such as time and cost constraints, but results from sample surveys are always estimates, not precise figures. This means that they are subject to a margin of error which can have an impact on how changes in the numbers should be interpreted, especially in the short-term.
Changes in the numbers reported in this Statistical Bulletin (and especially the rates) between three month periods are usually not greater than the margin of error. In practice, this means that small, short-term movements in reported rates (for example within +/- 0.3 percentage points) should be treated as indicative, and considered alongside medium and long-term patterns in the series and corresponding movements in administrative sources, where available, to give a fuller picture.
Further information is available in the Accuracy of the Statistics: Estimating and Reporting Uncertainty section of this Statistical Bulletin.
Seasonal adjustment
All estimates discussed in this Statistical Bulletin are seasonally adjusted except where otherwise stated. Like many economic indicators, the labour market is affected by factors that tend to occur at around the
for example school leavers entering the labour market in July and whether Easter falls in March or April. In order to compare movements other than annual changes in labour market statistics, such as since the previous quarter or since the previous month, the data are seasonally adjusted to remove the effects of seasonal factors and the arrangement of the calendar.
1. Employment
What is employment ?
measures the number of people in work and differs from the number of jobs because some people have more than one job. Further information is available at Notes for Employment at the end of this section.
is available on the website as a short video.
is available in an article on the website.
Where to find data about employment
Employment estimates are available at Tables 1 and 3 of the pdf version of this Statistical Bulletin and at
Where to find more information about employment
An article looking at
was published on 20 August 2014.
Commentary
The proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 in work is known as the employment rate. Chart 1.1 shows the employment rate for people aged from 16 to 64 since comparable records began in 1971. The chart shows that the lowest employment rate was 65.6% in 1983, during the economic downturn of the early 1980s. The employment rate for the latest time period, June to August 2014, was 73.0%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than the record high of 73.2% recorded for December 2004 to February 2005.
Chart 1.1: Employment rate (aged 16 to 64) from January-March 1971 to June-August 2014, seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
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Chart 1.2 looks in more detail at the employment rate for the last five years.
Chart 1.2: Employment rate (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
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73.0% of people aged from 16 to 64 were in work for June to August 2014. This was:
up slightly from 72.9% for March to May 2014,
up from 71.5% for a year earlier, and
equal to the pre-downturn peak of 73.0% recorded for early 2008.
Looking at employment rates by gender, for June to August % of men and 68.1% of women aged from 16 to 64 were in work. These employment rates for men and women were higher than those for a year earlier. The employment rate for men was lower than before the 2008/09 downturn, when it peaked at 79.1% in late 2007/early 2008. However the employment rate for women was the highest since comparable records begin in 1971.
There were 30.76 million people in work for June to August
more than for March to May 2014 and 736,000 more than a year earlier. The increase of 46,000 between March to May and June to August 2014 is the smallest quarterly increase since March to May 2013.
Looking at type of employment, between June to August 2013 and June to August 2014, the number of:
employees working full-time increased by 422,000 to reach 19.15 million.
employees working part-time increased by 62,000 to reach 6.84 million.
self-employed people working full-time increased by 187,000 to reach 3.25 million.
self-employed people working part-time increased by 92,000 to reach 1.27 million.
unpaid family workers increased by 10,000 to reach 126,000. See Note 2 at the end of this section for an explanation of the coverage of this series.
people on government supported training and employment programmes decreased by 37,000 to reach 128,000. See Note 3 at the end of this section for an explanation of the coverage of this series.
Looking at full-time and part-time working by gender, between June to August 2013 and June to August 2014, Chart 1.3 shows that the number of:
men working full-time increased by 361,000 to reach 14.21 million,
men working part-time was little changed at 2.15 million,
women working full-time increased by 231,000 to reach 8.27 million, and
women working part-time increased by 138,000 to reach 6.13 million.
Chart 1.3: Changes in people in employment between June to August 2013 and June to August 2014, seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
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Notes for Employment
Employment consists of employees, self-employed people, unpaid family workers and people on government supported training and employment programmes.
Unpaid family workers are people who work in a family business who do not receive a formal wage or salary but benefit from the profits of that business.
The government supported training and employment programmes series does not include all people it only includes people engaging in any form of work, work experience or work-related training who are not included in the employees or self-employed series. People on these programmes NOT engaging in any form of work, work experience or work-related training are not included in the
they are classified as unemployed or economically inactive.
2. Public and Private Sector Employment
What is public and private sector employment ?
measures the number of people in paid work in the public sector. The public sector comprises central government, local government and public corporations. Estimates of public sector employment are obtained from information provided by public sector organisations.
is estimated as the difference between total employment, sourced from the Labour Force Survey, and public sector employment.
Where to find data about public and private sector employment
Public and private sector employment estimates are available at Tables 4 and 4(1) of the pdf version of this Statistical Bulletin and at
Further information on public sector employment is available in the
Commentary
Estimates of public and private sector employment for June 2014 were first published in last month’s Statistical Bulletin. In this month’s Bulletin, there have been revisions to estimates of private sector employment, but not to estimates of public sector employment. The revisions to estimates of private sector employment have resulted from revisions to estimates of total employment sourced from the Labour Force Survey. See Background Notes to this Statistical Bulletin for further details.
There were 5.39 million people employed in the public sector for June 2014. This was 11,000 fewer than for March 2014 and 282,000 fewer than a year earlier.
There were 25.29 million people employed in the private sector for June 2014. This was 64,000 more than for March 2014 and 965,000 more than a year earlier.
These large annual movements in public and private sector employment were partly due to the reclassifications of Royal Mail plc (in December 2013) and Lloyds Banking Group plc (in March 2014). Excluding the effects of these reclassifications, public sector employment fell by 21,000 and private sector employment increased by 704,000 between June 2013 and June 2014.
For June % of people in employment worked in the private sector and the remaining 17.6% worked in the public sector.
Chart 2.1 shows public sector employment as a percentage of all people in employment for the last five years.
Chart 2.1: Public sector employment as a percentage of total employment, seasonally adjusted
Source: Quarterly Public Sector Employment Survey - Office for National Statistics
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The number of people employed in the public sector has been falling since December 2009. Quarterly estimates of public and private sector employment are available back to 1999. Comparisons of public and private sector employment over time are complicated by a number of changes to the composition of these sectors over this period with several large employers moving between the public and private sectors. ONS therefore publishes estimates of public and private sector employment excluding the effects of major reclassifications alongside estimates of total public and private sector employment at Table 4 of the pdf version of this Statistical Bulletin and at .
3. Employment by Nationality and Country of Birth, not seasonally adjusted
What is employment by nationality and country of birth ?
The estimates of employment by both nationality and country of birth relate to the number of people in employment rather than the number of jobs. Changes in the series therefore show net changes in the number of people in employment, not the proportion of new jobs that have been filled by UK and non-UK workers. These estimates should not be used as a proxy for flows of foreign migrants into the UK.
The estimates are not seasonally adjusted and it is therefore best practice to compare the estimates for April to June 2014 with those for a year earlier rather than with those for January to March 2014.
Where to find data about employment by nationality and country of birth
Estimates of employment by nationality and country of birth are available at Table 8 of the pdf version of this Statistical Bulletin and at .
Commentary
Estimates of employment by nationality and country of birth for April to June 2014 were first published in the August 2014 edition of this Statistical Bulletin. In this month's Bulletin these estimates, along with other estimates derived from the Labour Force Survey, have been revised back to 2001. See Background Notes to this Statistical Bulletin for further details.
Looking at the estimates by nationality, between April to June 2013 and April to June 2014, the number of:
UK nationals working in the UK increased by 524,000 to reach 27.68 million, and
non-UK nationals working in the UK increased by 223,000 to reach 2.92 million.
For April to June 2014, there were 4.79 million people born abroad working in the UK, but the number of non-UK nationals working in the UK was much lower at 2.92 million. This is because the estimates for people born abroad working in the UK include some UK nationals. Looking at the estimates by country of birth, between April to June 2013 and April to June 2014, the number of:
UK born people working in the UK increased by 422,000 to reach 25.82 million, and
non-UK born people working in the UK increased by 334,000 to reach 4.79 million.
Chart 3.1: Employment by nationality and country of birth, changes between April to June 2013 and April to June 2014, not seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
Between April-June 2013 and April-June 2014, the total number of people in employment increased by 746,000.
Changes in the UK and non-UK estimates may not sum exactly to changes in the total number of people in employment because some people do not state their country of birth or nationality in their Labour Force Survey interviews.
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Estimates of employment by nationality and country of birth are available back to 1997. For January to March 1997 there were 928,000 non-UK nationals working in the UK (3.5% of all people working in the UK). For April to June 2014, there were 2.92 million non-UK nationals working in the UK (9.6% of all people working in the UK). This increase in the number of non-UK nationals working in the UK since 1997 partly reflects the admission of several new member states to the European Union.
4. Actual Hours Worked
What is actual hours worked ?
measures the number of hours worked in the economy. Changes in actual hours worked reflect changes in the number of people in employment and the average hours worked by those people.
Where to find data about hours worked
Hours worked estimates are available at Tables 7 and 7(1) of the pdf version of this Statistical Bulletin and at
Commentary
Total hours worked per week were 987.3 million for June to August 2014. This was:
little changed on March to May 2014,
up 24.5 million (2.5%) on a year earlier, and
up 76.6 million (8.4%) on five years previously.
Chart 4.1 shows total hours worked for the last five years.
Chart 4.1: Total hours worked per week, seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
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For June to August 2014:
People working full-time worked, on average, 37.5 hours per week in their main job.
People working part-time worked, on average, 16.0 hours per week in their main job.
These average hours worked estimates were little changed compared with a year earlier.
5. Workforce Jobs (first published on 17 September 2014)
What is Workforce Jobs ?
measures the number of filled jobs in the economy. The estimates are mainly sourced from employer surveys. Workforce jobs is a different concept from employment, which is sourced from the Labour Force Survey, as employment is an estimate of people and some people have more than one job.
is available in an article published on the website.
Where to find data about workforce jobs
Jobs estimates are available at Tables 5 and 6 of the pdf version of this Statistical Bulletin and at
Commentary
There were 33.26 million workforce jobs in June 2014, up 285,000 from March 2014 and up 1.12 million on a year earlier. Chart 5.1 shows changes in the number of jobs by industrial sector between June 2013 and June 2014.
Chart 5.1 Workforce jobs changes between June 2013 and June 2014, seasonally adjusted
Source: Office for National Statistics
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Since comparable records began in 1978, the number of jobs in the manufacturing and mining and quarrying sectors has declined, but jobs in the service sectors have increased substantially. In June 1978, the manufacturing and mining and quarrying sectors accounted for 26.4% of all jobs. In June 2014 these sectors accounted for 8.1% of all jobs. In June % of all jobs were in by June 2014 this proportion had increased to 83.4%.
While comparable estimates for workforce jobs by industry begin in 1978, , are available in a report published by ONS in June 2013.
6. Average Weekly Earnings
What is Average Weekly Earnings ?
measures money paid to employees in Great Britain in return for work done, before tax and other deductions from pay. The estimates do not include earnings of self-employed people. Estimates are available for both total pay (which includes bonuses) and for regular pay (which excludes bonus payments). The estimates are not just a measure of pay settlements as they also reflect compositional changes within the workforce. Further information is available at Notes for Earnings at the end of this section.
Where to find data on Average Weekly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings estimates are available at Tables 15, 16 and 17 of the pdf version of this Statistical Bulletin and at ,
Where to find more information about Earnings
An article looking at
was published on 29 August 2014.
An article looking at
was published on 3 July 2014.
An article comparing
was published on 10 March 2014.
The , published on 12 December 2013, provides more detailed data.
Commentary
In August 2014:
Average regular pay (excluding bonuses) for employees in Great Britain was ?452 per week before tax and other deductions from pay.
Average total pay (including bonuses) for employees in Great Britain was ?479 per week before tax and other deductions from pay.
For June to August 2014, regular pay for employees in Great Britain was 0.9% higher than a year earlier and total pay for employees in Great Britain was 0.7% higher than a year earlier.
Between August 2013 and August 2014, the Consumer Prices Index increased by 1.5%.
Chart 6.1: Average earnings and consumer prices annual growth rates
Source: Office for National Statistics
This chart shows monthly estimates for the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) from August 2009 to August 2014 and three month average estimates for Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) from June-August 2009 to June-August 2014.
The CPI series is for the United Kingdom and is compiled from prices data based on a large and representative selection of individual goods and services. The AWE series are for Great Britain and are sourced from the Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey.
The AWE series are seasonally adjusted. The CPI series is not seasonally adjusted.
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Since comparable records began in 2000, average total pay for employees in Great Britain has increased from ?311 a week in January 2000 to ?479 a week in August 2014; an increase of 54.0%. Between January 2000 and August 2014, the Consumer Prices Index increased by 39.3%. While comparable records for Average Weekly Earnings start in 2000, modelled estimates back to 1963 (which do not have National Statistics status) are available at .
Notes for Average Weekly Earnings
The estimates a this means that they are not adjusted for price inflation. The estimates relate to Great Britain and include salaries but not unearned income, benefits in kind or arrears of pay.
As well as pay settlements, the estimates reflect bonuses, changes in the number of paid hours worked and the impact of employees paid at different rates joining and leaving individual businesses. The estimates also reflect changes in the overall struct for example, fewer low paid jobs in the economy would have an upward effect on the earnings growth rate.
Lloyds Banking Group plc is reclassified to the private sector from April 2014 following the sale of some government owned shares to private sector investors. It is classified to the public sector between July 2009 and March 2014. ONS estimates that, if the reclassification had not occurred, the public sector single month growth rates from April 2014 would have been around 0.3 percentage points higher and the corresponding private sector growth rates would have been around 0.1 percentage points lower.
From June 2012 onwards English Further Education Corporations and Sixth Form College Corporations are classified to the private sector, but for earlier time periods they are classified to the public sector. This affects the public and private sector single month growth rates from June 2012 to May 2013, and the three month average growth rates from April-June 2012 to May-July 2013. ONS estimates that, if the reclassification had not occurred, the public sector single month growth rates between June 2012 and May 2013 would have been between 0.6 and 0.8 percentage points lower and the corresponding private sector growth rates would have been between 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points higher.
7. Labour Disputes (not seasonally adjusted)
What is labour disputes?
estimates measure strikes connected with terms and conditions of employment.
Where to find data about labour disputes
Labour disputes estimates are available at Table 20 of the pdf version of this Statistical Bulletin and at .
Commentary
In August 2014, there were 27,000 working days lost from 18 stoppages. For the 12 months to August 2014, there were 842,000 working days lost from 130 stoppages.
Since records began in December 1931:
the highest cumulative 12 month estimate for working days lost was 32.2 million for the 12 months to April 1980, and
the lowest cumulative 12 month estimate for working days lost was 143,000 for the 12 months to March 2011.
Working days lost are at historically low levels when looking at the longer run time series back to the 1930s, available at .
Chart 7.1 shows cumulative 12 month totals for working days lost for the last five years.
Chart 7.1 Working days lost cumulative 12 months totals, not seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Disputes Statistics - Office for National Statistics
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8. Unemployment
What is unemployment ?
measures people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks.
is available on the website as a short video.
Where to find data about unemployment
Unemployment estimates for the UK are available at Table 9 of the pdf version of this Statistical Bulletin and at .
International comparisons of unemployment rates are available at Table 19 of the pdf version of this Statistical Bulletin and at .
European Union (EU) unemployment rates were published in a
on 30 September 2014.
Commentary
The unemployment rate is the proportion of the economically active population who are unemployed. The economically active population consists of those in work plus those seeking work and available to work (the unemployed).
Chart 8.1 shows the unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over since comparable records began in 1971. The chart shows that the lowest unemployment rate was 3.4% in late 1973/early 1974 and the highest rate, of 11.9%, was recorded in 1984 during the downturn of the early 1980s. The unemployment rate for the latest time period, June to August 2014, was 6.0%.
Chart 8.1: Unemployment rate (aged 16 and over) from January-March 1971 to June-August 2014, seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
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Chart 8.2 looks in more detail at the unemployment rate for the last five years.
Chart 8.2: Unemployment rate (aged 16 and over), seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
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As shown in Charts 8.1 and 8.2, the unemployment rate for those aged 16 and over for June to August 2014 was 6.0%. This was:
down from 6.5% for March to May 2014,
down from 7.7% for a year earlier, but
higher than the pre-downturn trough of 5.2% for late 2007/early 2008.
Looking at unemployment by gender for June to August 2014, there were:
1.97 million unemployed people, 154,000 fewer than for March to May 2014 and 538,000 fewer than a year earlier. This was the largest annual fall since comparable records begin in 1972.
1.10 million unemployed men, 69,000 fewer than for March to May 2014 and 326,000 fewer than a year earlier.
876,000 unemployed women, 85,000 fewer than for March to May 2014 and 212,000 fewer than a year earlier.
Looking in more detail at changes in the number of unemployed men and women by how long they have been unemployed, between June to August 2013 and June to August 2014, Chart 8.3 shows that the number of:
men unemployed for up to 6 months fell by 130,000 (21.2%) to reach 482,000.
men unemployed for between 6 and 12 months fell by 85,000 (33.9%) to reach 166,000.
men unemployed for over 12 months fell by 111,000 (19.9%) to reach 447,000.
women unemployed for up to 6 months fell by 84,000 (15.4%) to reach 462,000.
women unemployed for between 6 and 12 months fell by 46,000 (23.3%) to reach 151,000.
women unemployed for over 12 months fell by 83,000 (23.9%) to reach 263,000.
Chart 8.3: Changes in number of unemployed people between June-August 2013 and June-August 2014, seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
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Looking at international comparisons, the unemployment rate for the EU was 10.1% of the economically active population for August 2014. Within the EU, the highest unemployment rates were for Greece (27.0% for June 2014) and Spain (24.4% for August 2014) and the lowest were for Austria (4.7% for August 2014) and Germany (4.9% for August 2014). The unemployment rate for the United States was 6.1% for August 2014 and 5.9% for September 2014.
Chart 8.4 shows the unemployment rates for the UK, the EU and the United States for the last five years. As shown in Chart 8.4, the unemployment rate for the UK has been substantially lower than that for the whole of the EU. The unemployment rate for the United States peaked at 10.0% in October 2009 (when the rate for the UK was 7.9%). US unemployment has moved in a downward direction since early 2010, and since early 2013 it has generally been slightly lower than the rate for the UK.
Chart 8.4: Unemployment rates for the United Kingdom, United States and the European Union, seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics, Eurostat
The unemployment rates for the UK and the United States are for those aged 16 and over. The unemployment rate for the EU is for those aged from 15 to 74.
This chart shows monthly estimates for the EU and for the United States from August 2009 to August 2014 and three month average estimates for the UK from June-August 2009 to June-August 2014.
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9. Claimant Count
What is the Claimant Count ?
measures the number of people claiming benefits principally for the reason of being unemployed. Since October 1996 it has been a count of the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA). Claimant Count estimates are available on a comparable basis back to January 1971. The figures from January 1971 to September 1996 are estimates of the number of people who would have claimed unemployment related benefits if JSA had existed.
While comparable records start in 1971, some data back to 1881 (which do not have National Statistics status) are available from the “Historic Data” worksheet within .
See Notes for Claimant Count at the end of this section for further details.
Where to find data about the Claimant Count
Claimant Count estimates are available at Tables 10 and 11 of the pdf version of this Statistical Bulletin and at ,
Commentary
Chart 9.1 shows the Claimant Count since comparable records began in 1971. The chart shows that the lowest number of people claiming unemployment related benefits was 422,600 in December 1973 and the highest figure was 3.09 million in July 1986. For the latest month, September 2014, there were 951,900 people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA).
Chart 9.1: Claimant Count from January 1971 to September 2014, seasonally adjusted
Source: Office for National Statistics, Work and Pensions
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Looking in more detail at the most recent five years, Chart 9.2 shows the Claimant Count from September 2009 to September 2014.
Chart 9.2: Claimant Count, seasonally adjusted
Source: Office for National Statistics, Work and Pensions
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(167.5 Kb)
As shown in Charts 9.1 and 9.2, for September 2014 there were 951,900 people claiming JSA. The number of JSA claimants has fallen for 23 consecutive months and it is:
down 18,600 from August 2014,
down 394,500 from a year earlier, but
173,500 higher than the pre-downturn trough of 778,400 for February 2008.
For September 2014, excluding a small number of clerically processed claims for which an age breakdown is not available, there were:
225,200 people aged from 18 to 24 claiming JSA, down 5,100 from August 2014,
537,000 people aged from 25 to 49 claiming JSA, down 11,800 from August 2014, and
187,700 people aged 50 and over claiming JSA, down 2,000 from August 2014.
Notes for Claimant Count
1. The Claimant Count does not yet include people claiming Universal Credit. See Background Notes to this Statistical Bulletin for further details.
2. The Claimant Count includes people who claim Jobseeker’s Allowance but who do not receive payment. For example some claimants will have had their benefits stopped for a limited period of time by Jobcentre P this is known as “sanctioning”. Some people claim Jobseeker’s Allowance in order to receive National Insurance Credits.
10. Comparison between Unemployment and the Claimant Count
is measured according to internationally accepted . Unemployed people in the UK are:
without a job, have actively sought work in the last four weeks and are available to start work in the next two weeks,
out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next two weeks.
People who meet these criteria are classified as unemployed irrespective of whether or not they claim Jobseeker’s Allowance or other benefits. The estimates are derived from the Labour Force Survey and are published for three month average time periods.
measures the number of people claiming benefits principally for the reason of being unemployed. Since October 1996 it has been a count of the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA). Some JSA claimants will not be classified as unemployed. For example, people in employment working fewer than 16 hours a week can be eligible to claim JSA depending on their income.
Chart 10.1 and the associated spreadsheet compare quarterly movements in unemployment and the Claimant Count for the same three month average time periods. The unemployment estimates shown in this comparison exclude unemployed people in the 16 to 17 and 65 and over age groups as well as unemployed people aged from 18 to 24 in full-time education. This provides a more meaningful comparison with the Claimant Count than total unemployment because people in these population groups are not usually eligible to claim JSA.
When three month average estimates for the Claimant Count are compared with unemployment estimates for the same time periods and for the same population groups (people aged from 18 to 64 excluding 18 to 24 year olds in full-time education), between March to May 2014 and June to August 2014:
unemployment fell by 119,000, and
the Claimant Count fell by 107,000.
Chart 10.1: Quarterly changes in Unemployment and the Claimant Count (aged 18 to 64), seasonally adjusted
Source: Office for National Statistics, Work and Pensions
Unemployment estimates are sourced from the Labour Force Survey (a survey of households). The unemployment figures in this chart, and the associated spreadsheet, exclude unemployed people aged from 18 to 24 in full-time education.
Claimant Count estimates are sourced from administrative data from Jobcentre Plus (part of the Department for Work and Pensions).
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11. Economic Inactivity
What is economic inactivity ?
people are not in employment but do not meet the internationally accepted definition of unemployment because they have not been seeking work within the last four weeks and/or they are unable to start work within the next two weeks.
is available on the website as a short video.
Where to find data on economic inactivity
Economic inactivity estimates are available at Tables 1 and 13 of the pdf version of this Statistical Bulletin and at
Commentary
The proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 not in work and neither seeking nor available to work is known as the economic inactivity rate. Chart 11.1 shows the economic inactivity rate for people aged from 16 to 64 since comparable records began in 1971.
Chart 11.1 shows that the economic inactivity rate increased during the downturn of the early 1980s reaching a record high of 25.9% in 1983. As the economy improved in the late 1980s, the economic inactivity rate resumed its downward path, reaching a record low of 21.7% in late 1989 and 1990, before the economic downturn of the early 1990s drove it back up again. Following an increase in the economic inactivity rate during the downturn of 2008/09, it continued its downward path.
Chart 11.1: Economic Inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) from January-March 1971 to June-August 2014, seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
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Since comparable records began in 1971, the economic inactivity rate for men has been gradually rising while the rate for women has been gradually falling.
Chart 11.2 looks in more detail at the economic inactivity rate for the last five years.
Chart 11.2: Economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
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As shown in Charts 11.1 and 11.2, the economic inactivity rate for those aged from 16 to 64 for June to August 2014 was 22.2%. This was up from 22.0% for March to May 2014, but down from 22.4% for a year earlier.
There were 9.03 million people, aged from 16 to 64, not in work and neither seeking nor available to work (known as economically inactive) for June to August 2014. This was 113,000 more than for March to May 2014. However economic inactivity for those aged from 16 to 64 has shown a generally downward path since late 2011. Comparing June to August 2014 with a year earlier, there were 46,000 fewer economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64.
Looking in more detail at the 9.03 million people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive for June to August 2014:
2.36 million were students, 20,000 fewer than a year earlier.
2.27 million were looking after the family or home, 21,000 fewer than a year earlier.
2.02 million were long-term sick, 12,000 more than a year earlier.
1.32 million were retired, 54,000 fewer than a year earlier. This fall in the number of economically inactive people who had retired before reaching the age of 65 reflects ongoing changes to the state pension age for women resulting in fewer women retiring between the ages of 60 and 65.
188,000 were temporarily sick, 6,000 more than a year earlier.
45,000 were discouraged (not looking for work because they thought that no suitable jobs were available), 4,000 fewer than a year earlier.
The remaining 835,000 people gave other reasons for not looking for work or declined to provide a reason in their Labour Force Survey interview, 35,000 more than a year earlier.
Chart 11.3 shows changes in the number of economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64 between June to August 2013 and June to August 2014.
Chart 11.3: Changes in people who were economically inactive (aged 16 to 64) between June to August 2013 and June to August 2014, seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
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12. Young People in the Labour Market
Where to find data on young people in the labour market
Estimates for young people in the labour market are available at Table 14 of the pdf version of this Statistical Bulletin and at .
Where to find more information about young people in the labour market
Estimates for
for April to June 2014 were published on 21 August 2014.
A report on
was published on 5 March 2014.
Commentary
For June to August 2014, there were 3.23 million people aged from 16 to 24 in full-time education and 4.08 million 16 to 24 year olds not in full-time education. As shown in Chart 12.1, most 16 to 24 year olds in full-time education were economically inactive while most 16 to 24 year olds not in full-time education were in work.
Chart 12.1: Young people (aged 16 to 24) in the labour market for June to August 2014, seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
FTE = Full-time education.
The “Not in Full-time education” series include people in part-time education and/or some form of training.
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For June to August 2014, for people aged from 16 to 24, there were:
3.85 million people in work (including 865,000 full-time students with part-time jobs),
733,000 unemployed people (including 266,000 full-time students looking for part-time work), and
2.72 million economically inactive people, most of whom (2.10 million) were full-time students.
It is a common misconception that all people in full-time education are classified as economically inactive. This is not the case as people in full-time education are included in the employment estimates if they have a part-time job and are included in the unemployment estimates if they are seeking part-time work.
For June to August 2014, the unemployment rate for 16 to 24 year olds was 16.0%. This was:
down from 17.7% for March to May 2014,
down from 21.3% for a year earlier, but
higher than the pre-downturn trough of 13.8% for December 2007 to February 2008.
Comparisons of youth unemployment over time are complicated by the fact that unemployment rates are calculated as the number of unemployed people divided by the economically active population (which excludes those not seeking or available to work). Since comparable records began in 1992, the proportion of people aged from 16 to 24 in full-time education has increased substantially from 26.2% for March to May 1992 to 44.2% for June to August 2014. Increasing numbers of young people going into full-time education reduces the size of the economically active population and therefore increases the unemployment rate.
The unemployment rate for those aged from 16 to 24 has been consistently higher than that for older age groups. Since comparable records began in 1992:
the lowest youth unemployment rate was 11.6% for March to May 2001, and
the highest youth unemployment rate was 22.5% for late 2011.
13. Redundancies
What are redundancies ?
estimates measure the number of people who have been made redundant or have taken voluntary redundancy.
Where to find data on redundancies
Redundancies estimates are available at Tables 23 and 24 of the pdf version of this Statistical Bulletin and at
Commentary
For June to August
people had become redundant in the three months before the Labour Force Survey interviews. This was:
22,000 fewer than for March to May 2014,
39,000 fewer than for a year earlier,
and 217,000 fewer than the peak of 311,000 recorded for February to April 2009.
Chart 13.1 shows the number of people made redundant (including voluntary redundancies) for the last five years.
Chart 13.1 Redundancies, seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
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14. Vacancies
What are vacancies ?
are defined as positions for which employers are actively seeking to recruit outside their business or organisation.
Where to find data about vacancies
Vacancies estimates are available at Tables 21, 21(1) and 22 of the pdf version of this Statistical Bulletin and at ,
Commentary
There were 674,000 job vacancies for July to September 2014. This was:
up 18,000 from April to June 2014,
up 130,000 from a year earlier, but
22,000 lower than the pre-downturn peak of 696,000 for January to March 2008.
Chart 14.1 shows the number of job vacancies since comparable records begin in 2001.
Chart 14.1: Vacancies, seasonally adjusted
Source: Vacancy Survey - Office for National Statistics
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15. Key Out of Work Benefits, not seasonally adjusted (first published on 13 August 2014)
What are key out of work benefits ?
Key out of work benefits includes claimants of Jobseeker’s Allowance and Employment and Support Allowance and other incapacity benefits. It also includes claimants of Income Support and Pension Credit. While most people claiming these benefits are out of work a small number are in employment. These estimates exclude claimants in Northern Ireland.
The estimates are not seasonally adjusted and it is therefore best practice to compare the estimates for February 2014 with those for a year earlier rather than with those for November 2013.
Where to find data about key out of work benefits
Estimates of claimants of key out of work benefits are available at Table 25 of the pdf version of this Statistical Bulletin and at .
Commentary
For February 2014 there were 4.26 million people claiming key out of work benefits. This was:
417,200 fewer than for February 2013, and
836,600 fewer than the peak of 5.10 million recorded for February 2010.
For February % of the population aged from 16 to 64 were claiming key out of work benefits. This was down from 11.8% for a year earlier.
Chart 15.1 shows, for the last five years, the proportion of the population aged from 16 to 64 claiming key out of work benefits.
Chart 15.1 Proportion of population (aged 16 to 64) claiming key out of work benefits, not seasonally adjusted
Source: Work and Pensions, Office for National Statistics
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(v) Revisions
Estimates for the most recent time periods are subject to revision due to the receipt of late and corrected responses to business surveys and revisions to seasonal adjustment factors which are re-estimated every month. Estimates are subject to longer run revisions, on an annual basis, resulting from reviews of the seasonal adjustment process. Estimates derived from the Labour Force Survey (a survey of households) are usually only revised once a year. Revisions to estimates derived from other sources are usually minor and are commented on in the Statistical Bulletin if this is not the case. Further information is available in the .
One indication of the reliability of the key indicators in this Statistical Bulletin can be obtained by monitoring the size of revisions. , ,
record the size and pattern of revisions over the last five years. These indicators only report summary measures for revisions. The revised data itself may be subject to sampling or other sources of error. The ONS standard presentation is to show five years worth of revisions (60 observations for a monthly series, 20 for a quarterly series).
(vi) Accuracy of the Statistics: Estimating and Reporting Uncertainty
Most of the figures in this Statistical Bulletin come from surveys of households or businesses. Surveys gather information from a sample rather than from the whole population. The sample is designed carefully to allow for this, and to be as accurate as possible given practical limitations like time and cost constraints, but results from sample surveys are always estimates, not precise figures. This means that they are subject to some uncertainty. This can have an impact on how changes in the estimates should be interpreted, especially for short-term comparisons.
We can calculate the level of uncertainty (also called “sampling variability”) around a survey estimate by exploring how that estimate would change if we were to draw many survey samples for the same time period instead of just one. This allows us to define a range around the estimate (known as a “confidence interval”) and to state how likely it is in practice that the real value that the survey is trying to measure lies within that range. Confidence intervals are typically set up so that we can be 95% sure that the true value lies within the range – in which case we refer to a “95% confidence interval”.
For example, the unemployment rate for June to August 2014 was estimated to be 6.0%. This figure had a stated 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.2 percentage points. This means that we can be 95% certain that the true unemployment rate for June to August 2014 was between 5.8% and 6.2%. However, the best estimate from the survey was that the unemployment rate was 6.0%.
The number of people unemployed for the same period was estimated at 1,972,000, with a stated 95% confidence interval of +/- 76,000. This means that we can be 95% sure that the true number of unemployed people was between 1,896,000 and 2,048,000. Again, the best estimate from the survey was that the number of unemployed people was 1,972,000.
As well as calculating precision measures around the numbers and rates obtained from the survey, we can also calculate them for changes in the numbers.
For example, for June to August 2014, the estimated change in the number of unemployed people since March to May 2014 was a fall of 154,000, with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 82,000. This means that we can be 95% certain the actual change in unemployment was somewhere between a fall of 72,000 and a fall of 236,000, with the best estimate being a fall of 154,000. As the estimated fall in unemployment of 154,000 is greater than the confidence interval of 82,000, the estimated fall in unemployment is said to be “statistically significant”; we can be confident that there has been a fall in unemployment.
Working with uncertain estimates
In general, changes in the numbers (and especially the rates) reported in this Statistical Bulletin between three month periods are small, and are not usually greater than the level that is explainable by sampling variability. In practice, this means that small, short-term movements in reported rates (for example within +/- 0.3 percentage points) should be treated as indicative, and considered alongside medium and long-term patterns in the series and corresponding movements in administrative sources, where available, to give a fuller picture.
Seasonal adjustment and uncertainty
Like many economic indicators, the labour market is affected by factors that tend to occur at around the
for example school leavers entering the labour market in July and whether Easter falls in March or April. In order to compare movements other than annual changes in labour market statistics, such as since the previous quarter or since the previous month, the data are seasonally adjusted to remove the effects of seasonal factors and the arrangement of the calendar. All estimates discussed in this Statistical Bulletin are seasonally adjusted except where otherwise stated. While seasonal adjustment is essential to allow for robust comparisons through time, it is not possible to estimate uncertainty measures for the seasonally adjusted series.
Where to find data about uncertainty and reliability
shows sampling variabilities for estimates derived from the Labour Force Survey.
shows sampling variabilities for estimates of workforce jobs.
The sampling variability of the three month average vacancies level is around +/- 1.5% of that level.
Sampling variability information for Average Weekly Earnings growth rates are available from the “Sampling Variability” worksheets within
Background notes
This month’s release
ONS has revised estimates derived from the Labour Force Survey (including estimates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity) as a result of taking on board population estimates based on the 2011 Census and a review of the seasonal adjustment process. Estimates have been revised back to June to August 2001. The article published on 23 September 2014 provides indicative details of the back revisions to the headline estimates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity. ONS will update this article shortly.
There have been further revisions to estimates of educational status and labour market activity of people aged from 16 to 24 shown at Table 14 of the pdf version of this Statistical Bulletin and at . These revisions go back to the start of the time series in 1992 and result from an improved methodology for apportioning young people between those in full-time education and those not in full-time education. Further details will be available in the above mentioned article to be published shortly.
Next month’s release
On 17 December 2013, ONS published an . This decision results from new guidance in the 2010 European System of Accounts (ESA10). The article explained that the classification decision would be implemented from 1 September 2014 when ESA10 came into force. Consequently, Network Rail will be reclassified from the private sector to the public sector in the estimates of Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) in next month’s release, resulting in revisions to the AWE estimates back to 2002.
Introduction of Universal Credit
The Pathfinder for Universal Credit started on 29 April 2013 with the introduction of this new benefit in one Jobcentre Plus office. This has been extended to further Jobcentre Plus offices across Great Britain.
By 12 June 2014 (the Claimant Count date for June 2014), Universal Credit had been introduced in 10 Jobcentre Plus offices across Great Britain.
By 10 July 2014 (the Claimant Count date for July 2014), Universal Credit had been introduced in a further 15 Jobcentre Plus offices in the North West region of England.
By 8 August 2014 (the Claimant Count date for August 2014), Universal Credit had been introduced in a further 14 Jobcentre Plus offices in the North West region of England.
Between the August Claimant Count date (8 August) and the September Claimant Count date (11 September) no further Jobcentre Plus offices had introduced Universal Credit.
Universal Credit had therefore been introduced in 39 Jobcentre Plus offices across Great Britain by 11 September 2014, of which 33 were in the North West region.
More detailed information is available at
under Universal Credit on the website.
Universal Credit will replace a number of means-tested benefits including the means-tested element of Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA). It will not replace contributory based JSA.
The Claimant Count measures the number of people claiming benefits principally for the reason of being unemployed. Since October 1996 it has been a count of the number of people claiming JSA. Following a consultation in 2012 by ONS, it was decided that, with the introduction of Universal Credit, the Claimant Count would include:
people claiming contribution-based JSA (which is not affected by the introduction of Universal Credit),
people claiming income-based JSA during the transition period while this benefit is being gradually phased out, and
people claiming Universal Credit who are not earning and who are subject to a full set of labour market jobseeker requirements, that is required to be actively seeking work and available to start work.
The Claimant Count estimates from May 2013 onwards, published in this Statistical Bulletin, do not include claimants of Universal Credit. ONS will include jobseeker Universal Credit claims in the Claimant Count statistics as soon as possible.
provides an indicative adjusted Claimant Count which initially includes experimental estimates of all claimants of Universal Credit (not just those who are jobseekers) as well as all JSA claimants.
Publication policy
Publication dates up to the end of 2015 are available in the Background Notes to the .
A list of the job titles of those given
to the contents of this Statistical Bulletin is available on the website.
Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting
or from the Media Relations Office email:
The United Kingdom Statistics Authority has designated these statistics as National Statistics, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.
Designation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics:
are well explained an
are produced accord and
are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest.
Once statistics have been designated as National Statistics it is a statutory requirement that the Code of Practice shall continue to be observed.
Statistical contacts
Department
Richard Clegg @ONSRichardClegg
Labour Market Statistics Briefing
Nick Palmer
Labour Force Survey
Bob Watson
Claimant Count and Benefits
Mark Williams
Workforce Jobs, Public Sector Employment and Vacancies
Ian Richardson
Average Weekly Earnings
James Scruton
Labour Disputes
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