以下豆列推荐
······
(微笑不语)
(桃桃淘电影)
(懒人舒舒)
谁在看这部电影
······
订阅女人韵事的评论:
& 2005－, all rights reserved中医基础知识 _百度百科
特色百科用户权威合作手机百科 收藏 查看&中医基础知识
This book systematically describes the fundamental theories of Traditional Chinese Medicine(TCM). It outline the basic concepts and theories of TCM, such as yin-yang, the five elements, qi (vital energy), blood and body fluids, pathogenesis, pathology, the four diagnostic techniques, the eight guiding principles, differentiation of syndromes and general rules of prevention and treatment.作&&&&者Yin Hui He　ISBN9出版社外文出版社出版时间开&&&&本大16开
目录 Chapter Ⅰ GENERAL INTRODUCTION
Formation and development of the theoretical system of TCM
The materialistic and dialectical outlook in the theoretical system of]
ⅠThe materialistic outlook
ⅡThe dialectical outlook
Chief features of TCM
ⅠThe hol istic concept
ⅡBianzheng and lunzhi(planning treatment according to diagnosis)
Chapter Ⅱ YIN AND YANGHVE ELEMENTS(PHASES)
The yinyang theory
ⅠChief contents of the yinyang theory
ⅡApplication of the yinyang theory
The five·element theory
ⅠChief contents of the fiveelement theory
ⅡApplication of the fiveelement theory in TCM
新手上路我有疑问投诉建议参考资料 查看有限理性模型 _百度百科
特色百科用户权威合作手机百科 收藏 查看&有限理性模型本词条缺少名片图，补充相关内容使词条更完整，还能快速升级，赶紧来吧！
20世纪50年代之后人们认识到建立在经济人假说之上的完全只是一种理想模式不可能指导实际中的决策赫伯特·西蒙Herbent Simon提出了满意标准和有限理性标准(Bounded Rationality Model)用社会人取代经济人大大拓展了的研究领域产生了新的理论有限理性决策理论 有限理性模型又称西蒙模型或西蒙最满意模型(Simmon's Bounded Rationality Model)这是一个比较现实的模型它认为人的理性是处于完全理性和完全非理性之间的一种有限理性外文名Bounded rationality model提出时间20世纪50年代提出者赫伯特·西蒙标&&&&签经济
1手段-目标链的内涵有一定矛盾简单的手段-目标链分析会导致不准确的结论
西蒙认为手段-目标链的次序系统很少是一个系统的全面联系的链组织活动和基本目的之间的联系常常是模糊不清的这些基本目的也是个不完全系统这些基本目的内部和达到这些目的所选择的各种手段内部也存在着冲突和矛盾
2决策者追求理性但又不是最大限度地追求理性他只要求有限理性
这是因为人的知识有限决策者既不可能掌握全部信息也无法认识决策的详尽规律比如说人的计算能力有限即使借助计算机也没有办法处理数量巨大的变量方程组人的想像力和设计能力有限不可能把所有备择方案全部列出人的价值取向并非一成不变目的时常改变人的目的往往是多元的而且互相抵触没有统一的标准因此作为决策者的个体其有限理性限制他作出完全理性的决策他只能尽力追求在他的能力范围内的有限理性
3者在决策中追求满意标准而非最优标准
在决策过程中决策者定下一个最基本的要求然后考察现有的备择方案如果有一个备择方案能较好地满足定下的最基本的要求决策者就实现了满意标准他就不愿意再去研究或寻找更好的备择方案了
这是因为一方面人们往往不愿发挥继续研究的积极性仅满足于已有的备择方案
另一方面由于种种条件的约束决策者本身也缺乏这方面的能力在现实生活中往往可以得到较满意的方案而非最优的方案
根据以上几点决策者承认自己感觉到的世界只是纷繁复杂的真实世界的极端简化他们满意的标准不是最大值所以不必去确定所有可能的备择方案由于感到真实世界是无法把握的他们往往满足于用简单的方法凭经验习惯和惯例去办事因此导致的决策结果也各有不同Herbert Simon () is most famous for what is known to economists as the theory of bounded rationality, a theory about economic decision-making that Simon himself preferred to call satisficing, a combination of two words: satisfy and suffice. Contrary to the tenets of classical economics, Simon maintained that individuals do not seek to maximise their benefit from a particular course of action (since they cannot assimilate and digest all the information that would be needed to do such a thing). Not only can they not get access to all the information required, but even if they could, their minds would be unable to process it properly. The human mind necessarily restricts itself. It is, as Simon put it, bounded by cognitive limits.
Hence people, in many different situations, seek something that is good enough, something that is satisfactory. Humans, for example, when in shopping mode, aspire to something that they find acceptable, although that may not necessarily be optimal. They look through things in sequence and when they come across an item that meets their aspiration level they go for it. This real-world behaviour is what Simon called satisficing.
He applied the idea to organisations as well as to individuals. Managers do much the same thing as shoppers in a mall. Whereas economic man maximises, selects the best alternative from among all those available to him, he wrote, his cousin, administrative man, satisfices, looks for a course of action that is satisfactory or good enough. He went on to say: Because he treats the world as rather empty and ignores the interrelatedness of all things (so stupefying to thought and action), administrative man can make decisions with relatively simple rules of thumb that do not make impossible demands upon his capacity for thought.
The principle of satisficing can also be applied to events such as filling in questionnaires. Respondents often choose satisfactory answers rather than searching for an optimum answer. Satisficing of this kind can dramatically distort the traditional statistical methods of market research.
Simon, born and raised in Milwaukee, studied economics at the University of Chicago. My career, he said, was settled at least as much by drift as by choice, an undergraduate field study developing what became his main field of interestdecision-making within organisations. In 1949 he moved to Pittsburgh to help set up a new graduate school of industrial administration at the Carnegie Institute of Technology. He said that his work had two guiding principles: one was the hardening of the social sciences; and the other was to bring about closer co-operation between natural sciences and social sciences.
Simon was a man of wide interests. He played the piano wellhis mother was an accomplished pianistand he was also a keen mountain climber. At one time he even taught an undergraduate course on the French Revolution. He was awarded the Nobel Prize for economics in 1978, to considerable surprise, since by then he had not taught economics for two decades.
有限理性模型的两种决策方法
从工作任务的不同组合排列中进行选择以达到满意结果的一般性决策方法
二方面排除法
这是一种适用于对方案进行同时性选择的有效方法
新手上路我有疑问投诉建议参考资料 查看中国至2050年空间科技发展路线图 _百度百科
特色百科用户权威合作手机百科 收藏 查看&中国至2050年空间科技发展路线图本词条缺少概述，补充相关内容使词条更完整，还能快速升级，赶紧来吧！页&&&&数&124页出版时间第1版 (日)
正文语种: 英语
尺寸: 28 x 20.4 x 1 cm
重量: 422 g中国至2050年空间科技发展路线图英文版是中国科学院至2050年中国重点科技领域发展路线图战略研究系列研究的成果之一主要分析了我国至2050年的国家需求和空间科技能够发挥的重要战略作用介绍了21世纪国际主要空间国家的发展战略科技发展趋势以及我国的发展现状重点阐述了我国空间科学空间应用和相关空间技术领域至2050年的发展战略目标与发展路线图Abstract
1 Introduction
2 National Demands and Significance of Space Science, Applications and Technology in 2050
2.1 Major problems confronting the development of China in 2050
2.2 Strategic impact of space science, applications and technology on the development of China
3 Trends of Space Science, Applications and Technology and Development Strategies for Space Powers
3.1 Development strategies for space powers and features of global space activities
3.2 Trends of global space science, applications and technology
4 Research Status, Advantages and Disadvantages of China in Space Science, Applications and Technology
5 Development Strategy and Roadmap for Space Science, Applications and Technology to 2050
5.1 Guiding principles
5.2 Vision
5.3 Strategic goals and roadmap to 2050
5.3.1 Strategic Goal 1 (Strategic goal of space science) and the roadmap
5.3.2 Strategic Goal 2 (Strategic goal of space applications) and the roadmap
5.3.3 Strategic Goal 3 (Strategic goal of space technology) and the roadmap
5.3.4 Mutually dependent relationships of requirements and support among space science, applications and technology
5.3.5 The general roadmap for space science, applications and technology
6 Conclusion
References
新手上路我有疑问投诉建议参考资料 查看